There are several things obviously wrong with the graph. First, neither axis starts at zero. Second, even though the units used for all three lines are the same, the production line is given its own axis on the right, with a substantially different scale. I decided to see if I could find the data and recreate the graph to look how we'd all expect data to be presented.
I found the relevant data at the EIA website, with monthly data for Production, Consumption, and Net Imports. Using a spreadsheet, I made a chart of all three, matched the scales and units, and look what I made:
It's not as fancy, and it has a couple extra months' worth of data, but it looks close enough to suggest that it's the same data that the original chart-makers used. So what does the data look like when it's put on a chart with one axis that starts at zero, and we can see the "surge" in production next to the "substantial" fall in imports?
The rise in production looks a little less impressive now, doesn't it?
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While I'm at it, I may as well post two other charts that were interesting using the same data set. The first was pointed out by Glenn (who credited his wife and daughter for pointing it out to him), which is that the two "sources" of oil on this graph (Field Production and Net Imports) don't add up to the Consumption total. In fact, as this chart shows, they're off by quite a bit:
Indeed, for the last month of data (Dec 2012) the difference is over 5 million barrels a day, which is 28% of consumption for the month, while net imports are listed at 6 million barrels a day. Where does all of that extra consumed oil come from?
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The data series for all three (Field Production, Consumption, and Net Imports) go back to 1973 in monthly form in the tables I was able to find on the EIA website. When plotted since then, the trends are pretty interesting, especially the change in net imports.
There's also the pesky problem of the three series not adding up in this chart as well. Here's what the difference looks like:
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Someone also asked a question about JH Kunstler's chart of US oil production. I put together a remake of it using the same monthly data set as the other graphs. It's not as smooth, but the picture is pretty similar. The uptick on the right looks a bit more pronounced with the last couple months of 2012 included, though. Perhaps if it's smoothed out as quarterly or annual averages it looks more like the original.
